It was 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his second to restore the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have put together 10 in a row, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – but right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent they have to face as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the force he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
