Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
